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2018 Governor · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 773 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.395) = 5.395
  4. Absolute miss = |5.395| = 5.395

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56419, race ID 138 (538 database).