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2020 House · AK-1

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 770 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 49%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.26% · Republican 54.40%

R+9.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 49 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.264 − 54.401 = -9.137
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-9.137) = 4.137
  4. Absolute miss = |4.137| = 4.137

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72193, race ID 7836 (538 database).