2018 Governor · CT
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 681 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 37%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.10% · Republican 44.41%
D+3.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 37 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 48.098 − 44.409 = 3.689
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (3.689) = 5.311
- Absolute miss = |5.311| = 5.311
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56662, race ID 137 (538 database).