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2020 Senate · GA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-12-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,011 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (1.226) = 1.775
  4. Absolute miss = |1.775| = 1.775

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73956, race ID 8737 (538 database).