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2014 Governor · CO

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 695 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (3.342) = -7.342
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.342| = 7.342

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 33813, race ID 1247 (538 database).