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2012 President · NC

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 1,723 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 53%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.35% · Republican 50.39%

R+2.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 53 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.351 − 50.393 = -2.042
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.042) = -5.958
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.958| = 5.958

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30322, race ID 680 (538 database).