2018 Senate · OH
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 789 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 37%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.41% · Republican 46.57%
D+6.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 37 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 53.411 − 46.566 = 6.845
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.845) = 2.154
- Absolute miss = |2.154| = 2.154
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56661, race ID 117 (538 database).