2020 Senate · MI
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-24 (10 days before the election) · 679 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 41%
D+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.90% · Republican 48.22%
D+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
- Actual margin = 49.903 − 48.218 = 1.685
- Signed miss = 11.00 − (1.685) = 9.315
- Absolute miss = |9.315| = 9.315
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71890, race ID 6280 (538 database).