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2012 House · NE-2

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,168 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 57%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.20% · Republican 50.80%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 57 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.204 − 50.796 = -1.592
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-1.592) = -12.409
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.409| = 12.409

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30521, race ID 5131 (538 database).