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2016 President · NY

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,681 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 36%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.72% · Republican 32.73%

D+24.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 36 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.722 − 32.729 = 23.993
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (23.993) = -4.994
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.994| = 4.994

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48853, race ID 636 (538 database).