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2012 President · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 1,182 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 50%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 50 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (0.877) = -1.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.877| = 1.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30292, race ID 662 (538 database).