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2012 President · PA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 1,060 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.59%

D+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.972 − 46.587 = 5.385
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.385) = -2.385
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.385| = 2.385

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30780, race ID 691 (538 database).