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2018 Senate · NV

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 45%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.41% · Republican 45.38%

D+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 45 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.412 − 45.385 = 5.027
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (5.027) = -3.027
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.027| = 3.027

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56683, race ID 112 (538 database).