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2016 President · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 1,301 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 47%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 49.02%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 49.022 = -1.199
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.199) = 2.199
  4. Absolute miss = |2.199| = 2.199

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47767, race ID 611 (538 database).