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2016 President · SC

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,751 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.67% · Republican 54.94%

R+14.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.673 − 54.939 = -14.266
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-14.266) = 9.266
  4. Absolute miss = |9.266| = 9.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48857, race ID 642 (538 database).