Siena/NYT
Polls scored
111
108 races, 2016–2024
Lean
1.7 pts toward Democrats
95% range 0.9 to 2.6
Average miss
4.1 pts
on the D–R margin
Winner called
75%
Every scored poll
| Fieldwork ended | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Workings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 President · Michigan | R+3.0 | R+1.4 | -1.6 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 President · Pennsylvania | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | +0.7 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 President · North Carolina | D+4.0 | R+3.2 | +7.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 President · Arizona | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | +1.5 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 President · Wisconsin | D+2.0 | R+0.9 | +2.9 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 President · Nevada | D+2.0 | R+3.1 | +5.1 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Senate · Michigan | even | D+0.3 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Senate · Pennsylvania | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | +5.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Senate · Arizona | D+8.0 | D+2.4 | +5.6 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Senate · Wisconsin | D+4.0 | D+0.8 | +3.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Senate · Nevada | D+12.0 | D+1.6 | +10.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024 Governor · North Carolina | D+20.0 | D+14.8 | +5.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024 President · Georgia | even | R+2.2 | +2.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 President · Texas | R+11.0 | R+13.7 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 President · Nebraska | R+15.0 | R+20.5 | +5.5 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 President · Nebraska CD-2 | D+12.0 | D+4.6 | +7.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Senate · Texas | R+3.0 | R+8.5 | +5.5 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Senate · Nebraska | R+19.0 | R+25.2 | +6.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-23 | 2024 President · US | even | R+1.5 | +1.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022 Senate · GA | D+3.0 | D+1.0 | +2.0 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022 Governor · GA | R+5.0 | R+7.5 | +2.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022 Senate · AZ | D+6.0 | D+4.9 | +1.1 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022 Senate · PA | D+5.0 | D+4.9 | +0.1 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022 Governor · AZ | even | D+0.7 | -0.7 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022 Governor · PA | D+13.0 | D+14.8 | -1.8 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-22 | 2022 House · NM-2 | D+1.0 | D+0.7 | +0.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-21 | 2022 Senate · NV | even | D+0.8 | -0.8 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-21 | 2022 Governor · NV | R+4.0 | R+1.5 | -2.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-21 | 2022 House · KS-3 | D+14.0 | D+12.2 | +1.8 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022 House · NV-1 | even | D+5.6 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-19 | 2022 House · PA-8 | D+6.0 | D+2.5 | +3.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-29 | 2020 President · FL | D+3.0 | R+3.4 | +6.4 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 President · AZ | D+6.0 | D+0.3 | +5.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 President · PA | D+6.0 | D+1.2 | +4.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 President · WI | D+11.0 | D+0.6 | +10.4 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 Senate · AZ | D+7.0 | D+2.3 | +4.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 President · MI | D+8.0 | D+2.8 | +5.2 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 President · NC | D+3.0 | R+1.3 | +4.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 President · NV | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | +3.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Senate · MI | D+8.0 | D+1.7 | +6.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Senate · NC | D+3.0 | R+1.7 | +4.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Governor · NC | D+9.0 | D+4.5 | +4.5 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-22 | 2020 President · TX | R+4.0 | R+5.6 | +1.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-22 | 2020 Senate · TX | R+10.0 | R+9.6 | -0.4 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 President · IA | D+3.0 | R+8.2 | +11.2 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 President · KS | R+7.0 | R+14.7 | +7.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 President · MT | R+6.0 | R+16.4 | +10.4 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 Senate · IA | R+1.0 | R+6.6 | +5.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 Senate · KS | R+4.0 | R+11.4 | +7.4 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 Senate · MT | R+3.0 | R+10.0 | +7.0 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 Governor · MT | R+4.0 | R+12.9 | +8.9 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-19 | 2020 House · MT-1 | R+4.0 | R+12.8 | +8.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-17 | 2020 President · US | D+9.0 | D+4.4 | +4.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-16 | 2020 President · GA | even | D+0.2 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-16 | 2020 Senate · GA | even | R+1.8 | +1.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 House · KY-6 | R+0.4 | R+3.2 | +2.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 House · NY-19 | D+1.7 | D+8.1 | -6.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 House · NY-22 | R+0.9 | D+2.3 | -3.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018 House · IA-4 | R+4.8 | R+3.3 | -1.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018 House · IL-14 | D+5.2 | D+5.0 | +0.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018 House · MI-8 | D+6.6 | D+3.8 | +2.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 House · CA-48 | D+1.7 | D+7.1 | -5.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 House · GA-6 | D+2.1 | D+1.0 | +1.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 House · TX-32 | D+4.0 | D+6.5 | -2.5 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 House · VA-7 | R+1.8 | D+1.9 | -3.7 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 House · WA-8 | D+2.8 | D+4.8 | -2.0 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018 House · IA-1 | D+6.5 | D+5.1 | +1.5 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018 House · NJ-7 | D+7.9 | D+5.0 | +2.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 House · CA-45 | D+1.3 | D+4.1 | -2.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 House · KS-2 | D+4.5 | R+0.8 | +5.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 House · PA-1 | R+1.3 | R+2.5 | +1.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-27 | 2018 House · CA-25 | R+4.4 | D+8.7 | -13.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-26 | 2018 House · IA-3 | D+2.2 | D+2.2 | -0.0 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-26 | 2018 House · NY-27 | R+4.4 | D+4.8 | -9.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Senate · FL | D+3.5 | R+0.1 | +3.7 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Governor · FL | D+4.4 | R+0.4 | +4.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 House · NY-11 | R+3.3 | D+8.5 | -11.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 House · PA-10 | R+1.6 | R+2.6 | +1.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 House · UT-4 | D+0.3 | D+0.3 | +0.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-23 | 2018 House · CA-10 | D+2.4 | D+4.5 | -2.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-23 | 2018 House · IL-6 | D+1.2 | D+7.2 | -5.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-23 | 2018 House · IL-13 | R+5.1 | R+0.8 | -4.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-23 | 2018 House · NJ-3 | R+0.6 | D+1.3 | -1.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 House · OH-1 | R+8.7 | R+4.4 | -4.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 House · TX-7 | R+0.9 | D+5.1 | -5.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 House · CA-49 | D+14.7 | D+12.8 | +1.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 House · FL-26 | D+0.9 | D+1.8 | -0.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 House · NM-2 | R+0.1 | D+1.9 | -1.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-20 | 2018 House · CA-39 | D+1.0 | D+3.1 | -2.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-20 | 2018 House · IL-12 | R+8.5 | R+6.2 | -2.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-20 | 2018 House · VA-2 | R+2.8 | D+2.2 | -5.0 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-19 | 2018 House · VA-5 | D+1.0 | R+6.5 | +7.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018 House · FL-15 | R+0.6 | R+6.0 | +5.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-18 | 2018 House · PA-8 | D+12.6 | D+9.3 | +3.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-17 | 2018 Senate · AZ | R+1.8 | D+2.3 | -4.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-17 | 2018 House · FL-27 | D+7.2 | D+6.0 | +1.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-17 | 2018 House · ME-2 | D+0.1 | D+1.2 | -1.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018 House · KS-3 | D+9.0 | D+9.7 | -0.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018 House · WA-3 | R+7.0 | R+5.3 | -1.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018 House · WV-3 | R+4.6 | R+12.7 | +8.1 | autopsy |
| 2017-10-31 | 2017 Governor · VA | D+3.0 | D+8.9 | -5.9 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 Governor · NC | D+1.0 | D+0.2 | +0.8 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 Senate · NC | R+1.0 | R+5.7 | +4.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · NC | even | R+3.7 | +3.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-26 | 2016 Senate · FL | R+9.0 | R+7.7 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-26 | 2016 President · FL | R+4.0 | R+1.2 | -2.8 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-24 | 2016 Senate · PA | D+3.0 | R+1.4 | +4.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-24 | 2016 President · PA | D+7.0 | R+0.7 | +7.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-22 | 2016 Governor · NC | D+6.0 | D+0.2 | +5.8 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-22 | 2016 Senate · NC | D+1.0 | R+5.7 | +6.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-22 | 2016 President · NC | D+7.0 | R+3.7 | +10.7 | autopsy |