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2018 House · NJ-3

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 508 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.99% · Republican 44.6%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 48.72%

D+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.99 − 44.6 = -0.61
  2. Actual margin = 50.012 − 48.717 = 1.295
  3. Signed miss = -0.61 − (1.295) = -1.905
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.905| = 1.905

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56403, race ID 421 (538 database).