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2020 Senate · GA

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-16 (18 days before the election) · 759 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.95% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.949 − 49.728 = -1.779
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.779) = 1.779
  4. Absolute miss = |1.779| = 1.779

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71454, race ID 6271 (538 database).