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2018 House · FL-26

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 43.84%

D+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 50.88% · Republican 49.13%

D+1.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 43.84 = 0.86
  2. Actual margin = 50.875 − 49.125 = 1.750
  3. Signed miss = 0.86 − (1.750) = -0.889
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.889| = 0.889

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56336, race ID 279 (538 database).