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2022 Senate · NV

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.81% · Republican 48.04%

D+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.814 − 48.037 = 0.777
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.777) = -0.777
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.777| = 0.777

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81356, race ID 8937 (538 database).