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2018 House · TX-7

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.83% · Republican 45.7%

R+0.9

The certified result

Democrat 52.53% · Republican 47.47%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.83 − 45.7 = -0.87
  2. Actual margin = 52.528 − 47.472 = 5.056
  3. Signed miss = -0.87 − (5.056) = -5.926
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.926| = 5.926

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56371, race ID 534 (538 database).