2024 President · Texas
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 1,180 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 52%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%
R+13.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 52 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-13.683) = 2.683
- Absolute miss = |2.683| = 2.683
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88972, race ID 8889 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv