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2022 House · NV-1

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-20 (19 days before the election) · 399 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.57% · Republican 45.96%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.571 − 45.962 = 5.609
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.609) = -5.610
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.610| = 5.610

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81320, race ID 9233 (538 database).