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2018 House · NY-19

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.28% · Republican 41.6%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 39.00%

D+8.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.28 − 41.6 = 1.68
  2. Actual margin = 47.079 − 38.996 = 8.083
  3. Signed miss = 1.68 − (8.083) = -6.403
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.403| = 6.403

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56693, race ID 456 (538 database).