Skip to content

2022 Senate · PA

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 620 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 44%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.25% · Republican 46.34%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 44 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.248 − 46.335 = 4.913
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.913) = 0.087
  4. Absolute miss = |0.087| = 0.087

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81357, race ID 8945 (538 database).