Skip to content

2022 Governor · NV

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-21 (18 days before the election) · 885 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.30% · Republican 48.81%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.297 − 48.807 = -1.510
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-1.510) = -2.490
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.490| = 2.490

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81356, race ID 8972 (538 database).