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2018 House · FL-15

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-18 (19 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42.84% · Republican 43.49%

R+0.6

The certified result

Democrat 46.98% · Republican 53.02%

R+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.84 − 43.49 = -0.65
  2. Actual margin = 46.976 − 53.017 = -6.041
  3. Signed miss = -0.65 − (-6.041) = 5.391
  4. Absolute miss = |5.391| = 5.391

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56307, race ID 268 (538 database).