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2020 President · FL

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-29 (5 days before the election) · 1,451 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-3.359) = 6.358
  4. Absolute miss = |6.358| = 6.358

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72479, race ID 6220 (538 database).