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2018 House · PA-10

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 498 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43.03% · Republican 44.6%

R+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.68% · Republican 51.32%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.03 − 44.6 = -1.57
  2. Actual margin = 48.678 − 51.322 = -2.644
  3. Signed miss = -1.57 − (-2.644) = 1.075
  4. Absolute miss = |1.075| = 1.075

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56446, race ID 500 (538 database).