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2018 House · PA-1

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 502 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.98% · Republican 47.31%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 51.26%

R+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.98 − 47.31 = -1.33
  2. Actual margin = 48.740 − 51.260 = -2.520
  3. Signed miss = -1.33 − (-2.520) = 1.189
  4. Absolute miss = |1.189| = 1.189

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56500, race ID 491 (538 database).