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2022 Governor · AZ

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.32% · Republican 49.65%

D+0.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.318 − 49.650 = 0.668
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.668) = -0.669
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.669| = 0.669

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81354, race ID 8954 (538 database).