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2020 President · TX

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-22 (12 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.06%

R+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.479 − 52.058 = -5.579
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.579) = 1.579
  4. Absolute miss = |1.579| = 1.579

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71967, race ID 6254 (538 database).