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2018 House · FL-27

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 542 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44.06% · Republican 36.85%

D+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.76% · Republican 45.76%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.06 − 36.85 = 7.21
  2. Actual margin = 51.762 − 45.762 = 6.000
  3. Signed miss = 7.21 − (6.000) = 1.210
  4. Absolute miss = |1.210| = 1.210

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56254, race ID 280 (538 database).