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2018 House · CA-48

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 491 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.45% · Republican 44.72%

D+1.7

The certified result

Democrat 53.55% · Republican 46.45%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.45 − 44.72 = 1.73
  2. Actual margin = 53.552 − 46.448 = 7.104
  3. Signed miss = 1.73 − (7.104) = -5.374
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.374| = 5.374

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56667, race ID 235 (538 database).