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2018 House · UT-4

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 526 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45.44% · Republican 45.13%

D+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 50.12% · Republican 49.86%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.44 − 45.13 = 0.31
  2. Actual margin = 50.122 − 49.864 = 0.258
  3. Signed miss = 0.31 − (0.258) = 0.052
  4. Absolute miss = |0.052| = 0.052

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56477, race ID 567 (538 database).