2022 Senate · GA
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-26 (13 days before the election) · 604 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.49%
D+1.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.445 − 48.488 = 0.957
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (0.957) = 2.043
- Absolute miss = |2.043| = 2.043
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81355, race ID 8925 (538 database).