2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,527 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 45%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 45 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.217) = 5.217
- Absolute miss = |5.217| = 5.217
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89275, race ID 9527 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv