2024 President · Arizona
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,025 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 48%
R+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%
R+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
- Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
- Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.527) = 1.527
- Absolute miss = |1.527| = 1.527
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89270, race ID 8759 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv