2024 Senate · Wisconsin
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,305 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 46%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.33% · Republican 48.48%
D+0.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 49.333 − 48.484 = 0.849
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.849) = 3.151
- Absolute miss = |3.151| = 3.151
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89276, race ID 9534 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv