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2020 President · WI

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 1,253 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 48.82%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.450 − 48.822 = 0.628
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (0.628) = 10.373
  4. Absolute miss = |10.373| = 10.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72481, race ID 6259 (538 database).