2020 Senate · MT
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-19 (15 days before the election) · 758 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.99% · Republican 55.01%
R+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 44.988 − 55.012 = -10.024
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-10.024) = 7.024
- Absolute miss = |7.024| = 7.024
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71747, race ID 6283 (538 database).