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2024 President · Nebraska CD-2

Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-10-26 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.32% · Republican 46.73%

D+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.324 − 46.731 = 4.593
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (4.593) = 7.407
  4. Absolute miss = |7.407| = 7.407

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 88978, race ID 8837 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv