2022 House · NM-2
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2022-10-22 (17 days before the election) · 398 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.34% · Republican 49.64%
D+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 50.337 − 49.636 = 0.701
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.701) = 0.299
- Absolute miss = |0.299| = 0.299
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 81321, race ID 9252 (538 database).