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2018 House · CA-39

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 496 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46.97% · Republican 45.95%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.56% · Republican 48.44%

D+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.97 − 45.95 = 1.02
  2. Actual margin = 51.557 − 48.443 = 3.114
  3. Signed miss = 1.02 − (3.114) = -2.094
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.094| = 2.094

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56329, race ID 226 (538 database).