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2024 Senate · Nevada

Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,010 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.87% · Republican 46.22%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.866 − 46.223 = 1.643
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (1.643) = 10.357
  4. Absolute miss = |10.357| = 10.357

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89273, race ID 9521 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv