2018 House · KY-6
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-11-03 (3 days before the election) · 438 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44.01% · Republican 44.4%
R+0.4
The certified result
Democrat 47.78% · Republican 51.00%
R+3.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44.01 − 44.4 = -0.39
- Actual margin = 47.785 − 50.998 = -3.213
- Signed miss = -0.39 − (-3.213) = 2.823
- Absolute miss = |2.823| = 2.823
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56708, race ID 339 (538 database).