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2018 House · WV-3

The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2018-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 490 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41.3% · Republican 45.94%

R+4.6

The certified result

Democrat 43.63% · Republican 56.37%

R+12.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.3 − 45.94 = -4.64
  2. Actual margin = 43.627 − 56.373 = -12.746
  3. Signed miss = -4.64 − (-12.746) = 8.107
  4. Absolute miss = |8.107| = 8.107

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56253, race ID 600 (538 database).