2024 Senate · Arizona
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,025 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 43%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.06% · Republican 47.65%
D+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 50.058 − 47.652 = 2.406
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.406) = 5.594
- Absolute miss = |5.594| = 5.594
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89270, race ID 9505 (538 database).
This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv