2024 President · Wisconsin
Siena/NYT · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 1,305 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 47%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%
R+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.859) = 2.859
- Absolute miss = |2.859| = 2.859
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89276, race ID 8905 (538 database).
This poll asked 4 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.
population: rv