2020 President · MI
The New York Times/Siena College · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 856 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 41%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.62% · Republican 47.84%
D+2.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 41 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 50.621 − 47.837 = 2.784
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (2.784) = 5.216
- Absolute miss = |5.216| = 5.216
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72152, race ID 6233 (538 database).